Hundreds of thousands of South Africans preparing for the country's annual car migration to holiday destinations are worried there is not enough petrol available to get them there. One thing they can be certain of: by the time they return home, they will no longer be able to buy any of the fuel with which most of them are familiar.
Fuel industry and government representatives held emergency talks this week after a national fuel shortage caused some petrol stations to run dry and resulted in the cancellation and late take-off of commercial flights. The main culprit is a planning miscalculation by fuel companies preparing to end production of leaded petrol.
From January 1, SA motorists will be able to buy only unleaded petrol. To cater for the small number of old vehicles that require lead, they will also provide small quantities of fuel with metal additives.
Oil companies have been systematically interrupting production to switch over to the new fuels. However, their timetables allowed limited time for potential technical difficulties. SA Petroleum Industry Association (Sapia) director Colin McClelland admits companies thought they would be able to handle problems quicker than they ultimately did. As a result, they did not set aside enough extra stock.
By the start of this week, most oil companies were reporting that production was back to normal and that shortages were being reduced. Extra emergency supplies were also being bought from bulk oil carriers passing SA. The most serious shortages were in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape. Inland motorists were promised that petrol stations on holiday routes would be fully stocked.
Minerals & energy minister Lindiwe Hendricks said in a statement after meeting the oil industry on Monday that the situation was under control. Despite other evidence to the contrary, she said she had no information that Gauteng petrol stations were running dry. In the Western Cape there was no problem with petrol, but diesel supply was tight and a shortage of jet fuel should be rectified in four days, Hendricks said.
Still, the Automobile Association has advised motorists not to take chances, and to top up once tanks are half empty.
Oil companies may not be the only ones to blame for shortages. An executive at one producer says a number of petrol stations delayed orders for December fuel deliveries, hoping to run down stocks of leaded fuel before the end of the month. Others also delayed, in anticipation of last week's petrol price drop, to reduce delivery fees. But motorists were also holding back, so when the surge came, stations could not cope.
Oil companies have had nearly four years to prepare for the changeover to unleaded fuels. However, it was only in April this year that the department of minerals & energy filled in the details.
From January 1, three octane levels of unleaded petrol will be allowed: 91, 93 and 95. Nearly all SA cars can run safely on unleaded, though some may require engine tuning. For those old cars unable to adapt, petrol stations will provide lead-replacement petrol containing metal additives. This will be available in 95 octane petrol at the coast and 93 octane inland. The commonest additives will be potassium or a manganese compound called MMT.
For motorists still unsure of the status of their cars, the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers' website (www.naamsa.co.za) lists the recommended fuel for almost every vehicle to be found on SA roads.
From January, diesel will also be cleaner. The maximum sulphur content, currently 1 000 parts per million (ppm), must come down to 500 ppm by 2006 and 50 ppm by 2010.
The changes are driven by SA's need to catch up with global anti pollution standards. Leaded petrol and high-sulphur diesel are recognised internationally as health risks. SA government reports have identified vehicle emissions as contributors to health problems.
Though the January 1 changes are the biggest single step so far in SA's efforts to catch up, the shift towards clean fuels and emissions has already begun. Since January 2005, all new cars and commercial vehicles launched in SA have had to meet emissions standards known as Euro 1. This means they must carry catalytic converters and limit emission of pollutants such as lead and carbon monoxide. Next month's changes will bring SA into line with the next step, Euro 2. Further improvements are due in ensuing years, leading to Euro 4 by 2010. Trucks follow a similar timetable.
Nearly all vehicles sold new in SA are designed for modern fuels and catalytic converters, which clean fumes before they get into the atmosphere. Their engines are not designed for old fuels commonly available in SA, and are less efficient when using them.
McClelland says fuel companies are on schedule to meet the January 1 deadline for cleaner fuels. Nearly all, in fact, have already stopped producing leaded fuel. He says motorists returning home from holiday have no reason to fear further fuel shortages.
