South African negotiators arrived at the climate change conference in Montreal this month with three key objectives: they wanted rich countries to commit to further cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, developing countries to remain exempt from mandatory targets, and the clean development mechanism (CDM), which rewards developed countries for investing in clean energy projects in poorer countries, to be reformed. All three were achieved.
For environmentalists, the most important breakthrough in Montreal was a guarantee by the world's most-industrialised nations, except the US, to begin formal talks next year on targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cuts after 2012, when the first commitment phase agreed on in Kyoto in 1997 expires.
The Kyoto Protocol, an amendment to the UN climate convention that came into force in February when Russia finally ratified it, commits more than 30 developed countries to cut emissions to 5% below 1990 levels by 2012.
The world's biggest polluter, the US, pulled out of Kyoto in 2001, arguing emissions targets would harm its economy and were unfair because emerging economic giants such as China, the second-biggest polluter, were exempted. China produces half the US's emissions and has almost five times its population (see table).
At Montreal the US eventually agreed to a non binding "dialogue" on future cuts that specifically excluded negotiations leading to new commitments. The greens regard this a diplomatic victory of sorts as it leaves the door open for the US to rejoin Kyoto when the Bush administration is replaced by a regime less reluctant to wean the economy off fossil fuel dependence.
It looks likely future targets will greatly exceed the current 5% reduction. Most scientists believe emissions will have to dip by 60%-80% just to stabilise - not even reduce the levels of the six greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mostly COČ - and hence atmospheric temperatures.
There is no longer any serious scientific doubt the earth's atmosphere is heating up as COČ levels increase. In a paper presented in Montreal, researchers from the Hadley Centre, a British climate prediction institute, pointed out that the top 10 annual average temperatures recorded since 1860 all took place after 1990.
At current emissions levels average global temperatures are projected to rise 3,4° C by 2080. Southern Africa can expect a surface warming of 3,8° C in summer and 4,1° C in winter.
In many cases the effects are already being felt. Researchers say storm surges are expected to rise from 75 m to 200 m by 2080, which would cause some island states to disappear.
The Hadley Centre says the Arctic ice cap shrank by 1m kmČ between 1972 and 2005, after a period of stability from the beginning of the century. The centre says in the past 35 years there has been a doubling of hurricanes in the two most intense categories and predicts tropical cyclones will become more intense.
Decisions reached in Montreal reflect a growing recognition that adapting to these changes is hardest for the world's poorest countries, especially in Africa. An agreement to launch a five-year adaptation plan and set up a financing framework to fund it was hailed by developing countries as a major victory.
Developing countries, including SA, were never really going to agree to mandatory cuts at Montreal, which is hardly surprising. The UN estimates they represent 80% of the world's population but use only 20% of the world's resources. But they did formally commit to do more to combat GHG emissions, a diplomatic breakthrough that puts more pressure on the US to sign up.
There is also a chance they could commit at some future date to intensity targets, measured by carbon emissions per unit of economic activity rather than absolute emissions.
SA is one of the top 20 GHG polluters in the world, producing almost half of Africa's total emissions. But right now no-one in government is prepared to talk emissions targets - intensity or otherwise - partly because so little information is available to policy makers.
Cabinet has approved a long-term study on likely effects of climate change, including economic implications of taking on targets, which will kick off next year by updating our GHG inventory, last done in 1994.
SA is in a double bind in that it not only needs to increase energy consumption to meet service delivery and job-creation targets, but is reliant on coal to do so. At the moment coal accounts for 87% of electricity generation sources (water is 8%); not surprisingly, therefore, the energy sector is responsible for 80% of COČ emissions.
With more than 50bn t in reserve, coal is expected to dominate power generation for at least two decades. Clean coal technologies, such as carbon capture and storage plants , will become increasingly important.
Officials have made it clear despite its poor public image that nuclear power will remain part of SA's energy mix. But renewables will get more support. "This includes biogas, solar, wind turbines, wave machines and hydrogen fuel cells," says Alf Wills, SA's chief negotiator in Montreal. "We must creatively combine the best technologies and approaches available."
Some targets are already set. Government wants an additional 10 000 gigawatt hours a year from renewables such as solar, biofuels and hydro by 2013. Right now renewables contribute 68 000 GWh/year.
The department of minerals & energy released a strategy paper this year setting a national efficiency improvement target of 12% by 2014. Kevin Nassiep, the department's chief director of energy planning, says new legislation before parliament next year will seek to introduce efficiency labelling for appliances and vehicles, energy regulations for commercial and residential buildings and incentives and penalties such as licence fees based on fuel efficiency.
Montreal has other important implications for SA. By committing to mandatory caps after 2012, Europe has secured the medium-term future of its carbon emissions market, the world's most important "cap and trade" system, which allows companies exceeding limits to buy pollution credits generated by companies investing in renewable energy in the developing world. Credits are tradable but become worthless without fixed caps.
At Montreal it was also agreed CDM red tape would be slashed and its approvals board beefed up with a US$13m cash injection from developed countries. Together with market certainty on carbon trading, this means big polluters in SA waiting to see which way the wind blows will be more likely to capitalise on carbon trading opportunities.
"Given the high level of emissions in SA we have few CDM projects involving major industry players," says Lwazikazi Tyani, who heads SA's CDM certification authority. "Big business will now come on board."
Take Eskom, which produces 92% of SA's electricity, mostly from coal-burning power stations. According to its annual report Eskom emitted 247 Mt of carbon from January 2004 to March 2005, which leaves plenty of room for earning credits by investing in cleaner technology.
"This decision provides a lot more clarity on the CDM process and is to be welcomed," Eskom GM of corporate sustainability Wendy Poulton says of the conference outcome. She declines to quantify the value of CDM projects in the pipeline unlocked by Montreal but other Eskom sources indicate that CDM credits might make a gas-powered plant more feasible in places like Coega, near Port Elizabeth.
In the end there was disappointment that Montreal did not result in setting new emissions targets or a deadline for implementing decisions. But negotiators say the talks represent the most serious progress since Kyoto.
"It has unstuck processes that were stuck for a long time," says Joanne Yawitch, the environmental affairs deputy DG in charge of climate change. "The real work starts now."
