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    23 December 2005 Xerox. The OriginalXerox. The Original

    Politics

    TIPPING POINT FOR ANC



    By Prakash Naidoo

    Ten-year comfortable cruise for the ANC party and its alliance partners hits the rocks

    It started out as a celebratory year for the ruling African National Congress and its alliance partners, only to end in a state of gloom and recrimination.

    By every indication, the travails of the ruling party will continue to dominate politics well into 2006.

    With former deputy president Jacob Zuma's rape trial set down for February, the local government elections in March, and Zuma's corruption trial in July, the saga will be as public as ever.

    There is mixed opinion among analysts about whether there will be a direct impact at the polls, but most predict a low turnout. Though the ANC is in no real danger, a low poll will signal more than just apathy.

    The political year opened with the ANC marking its 93rd anniversary, flush from a decade of successful democratic rule; 2005 has also heralded a symbolic milestone for the liberation movements: 50 years since the signing of the Freedom Charter. For the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu), it was the 20th anniversary of its historic formation.

    Finance minister Trevor Manuel sealed the country's economic management success with a budget speech announcing R6,8bn in tax cuts, coupled with a significant increase in social spending, as protests against poor social service delivery erupted at various townships. The promised rapprochement between the tripartite alliance partners - the ANC, Cosatu and the SA Communist Party (SACP) - was short-lived.

    Opening parliament, President Thabo Mbeki raised the issue of labour market flexibility, saying he planned to review the "regulatory framework as it applies to small, medium and micro-enterprises . . . and complete a system of exemptions for these businesses with regard to taxes, levies, as well as central bargaining and other labour arrangements". Cosatu and SACP anger was palpable, the fallout reverberating months later at the ANC's national general council.

    By mid year, SA's then deputy president, Jacob Zuma, was immersed in the sordid details that emerged in the corruption trial of his financial adviser , Schabir Shaik. In a damning guilty judgment, Judge Hilary Squires found the relationship between Zuma and Shaik to be "generally corrupt", sentencing the latter to an effective 15 years in jail.

    Laying bare Zuma's financial affairs, the trial also revealed the toxic mix of money and power in SA public life. In June, Mbeki "relieved" Zuma of his duties as deputy president, sparking a revolt of unexpected proportions within the ANC alliance movement's rank and file.

    Within days Zuma replaced Shaik in the dock, charged with two counts of corruption. It fuelled anger among his supporters - Cosatu, the SACP and the ANC's women and youth leagues - who claimed it was a political conspiracy to thwart his presidential ambitions.

    Though Zuma's successor, former minerals & energy minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, was welcomed by the business community, her reception was distinctly chilly from the Zuma camp.

    Removed as deputy president of SA, Zuma continued to serve the ANC in this position. However, he chose to "voluntarily" withdraw participation from party structures pending his trial. His supporters were not buying it. With the ANC's all-important NGC scheduled for the weekend of June 29, party leaders began to fret that the Zuma affair was threatening to derail the congress. The fears were well-placed, and emotions were fired by an additional source.

    A discussion document by deputy finance minister Jabu Moleketi sought to re open the thorny issue of labour market reforms. For grassroots members and the junior alliance partners, the protection of workers' rights, enshrined in the Labour Relations Act, was one of the most hard-fought gains of democracy and they came prepared for a fight. By the end of the weekend, delegates from seven of the nine provinces had Zuma reinstated and ensured Moleketi's paper barely made it off the discussion table.

    It was audacious, revealing for the first time in five years the level of intrigue and scheming behind the succession battle of the ruling party. It also exposed the ANC leadership, especially Mbeki, at their most vulnerable during this duel for power. More significant, it alluded to the possibility of things to come when the ANC meets for its 2007 national conference, where the leadership question will be finally settled.

    Amid this fracas was laid bare the cocktail of money and politics.

    With revelations from the Shaik trial still fresh, the murder of mining magnate Brett Kebble in September confirmed just how blurred the lines between public office and private capital have become. A fervent Zuma supporter, Kebble was a big investor in black economic empowerment projects, mostly including prominent members of the ANC and its youth league. To the comrades who benefited, Kebble was the generous benefactor. To the observer, it was a crude purchase of political favour.

    Amid calls for measures to regulate the flow of public funding to political parties, another prominent businessman emerged as a central player in the ANC succession battle. In October Saki Macozoma, said to be close to Mbeki, was under illegal surveillance by national intelligence agents. Intelligence minister Ronnie Kasrils moved swiftly to suspend the agents, but the incident deepened concern about the misuse of state resources to fight party political battles.

    As the tussle intensified, more business people began to emerge as players, many behind efforts to raise funds for Zuma's legal costs.

    Where some saw the Mbeki-Zuma warfare as a struggle for the soul of the ANC, others believed it had already been sold to the corrosive charms of capital.

    Yet government launched a high-profile drive to stem seeping corruption in local government.

    Ahead of the local elections in March, Mbeki declared war on corrupt councillors . But though the ANC has attempted to tighten the process around its election candidate lists, there continue to be breaches and factional eruptions. It may, therefore, require stronger intervention, a review of the oversight functions and pressure on local government MECs to enforce the code of conduct against guilty officials.

    Reassuringly, the troubles in the ANC have had little impact on national government or the country as a whole, including, crucially, the economy.

    The recent violent protests in certain township streets, especially Khutsong on the West Rand, are more the result of a contested demarcation process than the Zuma affair.

    According to the regional director for Africa of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Pratibha Thaker, the corruption allegations against Zuma have had no impact on foreign investor perceptions of SA.

    A survey conducted soon after Zuma was fired found that 86% of respondents felt Zuma's dismissal by Mbeki sent a clear message against corruption to the rest of government. The poll found Mbeki's approval rating rose from 48% in January to 83% after he fired Zuma.

    Unfazed by the ANC's internal wranglings, the economy zips ahead. Latest figures show employment in the formal non agricultural sector increased by 99 000, property prices are healthy, vehicle sales are soaring and the retail sector is anxious it might not meet the demand for electronic goods. Growth is expected to average around 4,3% in 2005, with 6% now in sight. Business confidence shows continual improvement and Moody' s was the second international agency to upgrade SA's investment rating in weeks.

    Since Zuma was charged with rape last month, his position and that of the alliance has been weakened.

    Mbeki was magnanimous in his response, speaking of his "sadness" at his deputy's troubles. The rape charge offered Cosatu and the SACP the opportunity to put some distance between them and Zuma, who had become the proxy for their opposition to Mbeki and his policies.

    In addition to question marks over its leadership, Cosatu faces a new challenge with the merger of Fedusa and Nactu producing the first significant challenge to its dominance of labour in 20 years.

    Yet the Left, which includes sections of Cosatu and the SACP, say it would be too narrow an interpretation to see the year's political upheavals in simple Mbeki vs Zuma terms. Rather, they say, it was a reaction against one style of leadership and a spirited defence of principles.

    It's too early to tell whether the year's traumatic infighting has energised the ANC, which has steadily centralised power under Mbeki, or whether a resurgence of grassroots power has left the party splintered, defensive and rudderless, its cherished tradition of being home to a rich spectrum of ideological thought lost forever.




    Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma - Perhaps the saddest year in ANC politics



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