There's a rumour in Cape Town that fuel tankers intended to ferry emergency supplies of diesel to Western Cape filling stations last week couldn't get to the supply depot - because they didn't have enough diesel in their own tanks.
"I've also heard that story," says SA Petroleum Industry Association (Sapia) director Colin McClelland. "I don't know if it's true, but nothing would surprise me after the past few days."
Though supplies of petrol and diesel are improving in SA and the neighbouring countries it supplies, it will be some time before they return to normal levels. Generally, refiners have 25 days of stock in reserve.
"We are well below that," says McClelland. "I'm not sure how long it will take to get back to that position."
All six of SA's fuel refineries were hit by the production problems that not only brought chaos to parts of SA but also damaged the country's reputation.
Airlines were first to be hit when they discovered Cape Town airport had run out of aviation fuel. Some flights were cancelled and many were delayed.
Since then, motorists all around SA have been hit by fuel shortages. For some, it has been an inconvenience; for others, a near disaster.
Agriculture analysts say some crops - notably deciduous fruit in the Western Cape and summer-rainfall crops in Gauteng and North West - have been put at risk by farmers' inability to find diesel for their vehicles.
Ships that usually refuel at SA ports have been forced to continue to other countries. Foreign energy analysts suggest the chaos portrays SA in a "Mickey Mouse" light.
For many service station owners, early December is the busiest time of year, as SA drivers hit the roads for their summer holidays.
Some owners claim the lack of fuel has caused them heavy financial losses and they want compensation. Farmers' groups have said they may also demand compensation.
Jeff Osborne, head of the Retail Motor Industry Organisation, which represents fuel stations, says that though nearly all franchise contracts are heavily weighted against fuel retailers, they may well be able to claim if they can prove they lost turnover because of fuel companies' failure to supply.
Retailers are waiting to assess final losses before deciding how to react.
"We would like to think that an oil company would compensate retailers by, for instance, reducing station rentals for this period," says Osborne. "But I have to admit there is not a history of fair play by oil companies in SA. It's hard to quantify at this stage but it looks as if losses could be quite significant. We will look at the overall situation in the new year and establish whether there are grounds for claims."
Sapia admits that its members are to blame for the shortages.
SA has six oil refineries: Caltex in Cape Town; Engen and a joint Shell/BP operation in Durban; Sasol in Secunda; PetroSA in Mossel Bay; and a Sasol/Total joint venture at Sasolburg. Between them they have capacity to refine 708 000 barrels of fuel a day. One barrel is the equivalent of almost 160. Petrol is the main product, followed by diesel, jet fuel, illuminating paraffin, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG - propane and butane) and fuel oil. Bitumen, for road repairs, is a significant by-product.
Most refineries usually operate below capacity. Though, nominally, oil companies produce to meet their own needs, there is a lot of fuel "barter". Caltex, for example, supplies itself and competitors in the Western Cape. In Durban or Johannesburg, its service stations receive fuel from the closest refinery.
"It makes sense to do it this way. Fuel exchange goes on all the time," says McClelland.
The recent crisis was caused by the need for all refineries to meet SA's 2006 switch to cleaner fuels.
Only unleaded petrol will be available from January 1, and low-sulphur diesel will follow a few weeks later. Though government decided on the octane details only this year, the industry has known about the deadline for years.
Refineries have progressively closed operations to change pipes and other facilities. Oil companies, however, underestimated possible disruptions and didn't set aside sufficient stocks for emergencies. "We didn't make enough provision for things going wrong," says McClelland. Every refinery was affected, he says: some miscalculated the time required for upgrading; others met unexpected technical difficulties. At Caltex, he says, Cape Town's notorious power shortages also contributed.
Minerals & energy minister Lindiwe Hendricks, having initially denied there were shortages, has since changed her tune and laid the blame squarely at the door of oil companies. Despite trying to deflect some of that blame by suggesting motorists overreacted by panic buying (though without producing any evidence), they now appear to accept responsibility.
Hendricks, though, wants an inquiry to establish the exact causes.
McClelland says all refineries are now fully operational and no longer producing leaded petrol. For the tiny minority of vehicles that require lead, petrol stations will have at least one pump supplying petrol with a metal additive.
