22 December 2006 Decisive year ahead By BARNEY MTHOMBOTHI It's customary at this time of the year to cast an eye at the year that has just passed by, celebrate the successes achieved, tick the failures and consider what lessons could be learnt - and applied in the new year. We're in a reflective mood.

Quote: It is the benefits of the economy that are at the centre of the political dogfights - the unequal benefits or sharing of it Everything that's been happening this year seems to be a dress rehearsal for the coming year. Most of the noise has been in the political arena, while the economy has been humming along nicely. It is the benefits of that economy that are at the centre of the political dogfights - the unequal benefits or sharing of it. That has as much to do with the structure of the economy as it has with the legacy of our past. People meant to be hewers of wood cannot suddenly become masters of their own fate at the adoption of a new constitution. The contradictions in our society - magnified by an economy that is palpably doing well but seemingly unable to sufficiently benefit the marginalised - are at the core of the bloodletting in the ruling party. The fight between President Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma is a struggle for the right to steer economic policy. Whoever takes charge has absolute power in an almost one-party state. We're heading for a decisive year. 2007 will see a confluence of events that should shape this country for years to come. We're coming to a fork in the road; which turn we take will determine our destiny. The Democratic Alliance elects Tony Leon's successor next year. But it's the election of Mbeki's successor that's going to decide whether it's boom or bust for us. Will Mbeki succeed Mbeki? Or will it be the flawed Zuma or any of the other contenders? We shall know by this time next year. That election is the single most important decision for years; as big a watershed as Nelson Mandela taking office in 1994 and Mbeki succeeding him a few years later. Mandela earned our undying respect by stepping down when he did. Mbeki will do well to follow such a fine example. That will lessen the tension in the party and allow it the space to choose his successor unhindered. It will also give him the time to deal with issues in his in-basket crying out for his attention - HIV/Aids, crime and the general problems of alienation. Government has been shamed into changing its tune on Aids. Credit should go to Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge for steering government policy from the lunatic fringe. Madlala-Routledge especially deserves plaudits for her courage and honesty. But it's the president who should lead on this matter if we're to get to grips with this epidemic. Government's voice is also either silent or muted on crime. As in Aids, there's a sense of denial about the seriousness of the issue. To call it crime is to underestimate its gravity. It is war. Society is under attack. The criminals have their generals with full military training directing proceedings. But nobody defends, or even speaks for, the victims or society; even if it's just to say: "we feel your pain" or "we know there's a problem and we're attending to it". It's dead silence. It's as if government has absconded. There's a lot going for this country. But if not dealt with, crime could destroy our future. We need to turn over a new leaf. This is the last issue of the year. The FM is back on the streets on January 11 2007. I want to thank you, our readers, for your support during the year. It certainly was an eventful year for the magazine. Also a big thank you to the many people - too many to respond to individually - who have sent us Christmas messages and gifts. We're forever grateful. May you all be showered with the blessings of the season. Enjoy. Don't overindulge. And spare a thought for the wretched souls of Darfur. e-mail: fmeditor@fm.co.za