The ANC will be watched closely to test claims that, whoever wins leadership in Polokwane next week, there will be no purge of the loser's supporters.
Party caucus chair Vytjie Mentor says predictions of a fallout after the conference are wishful thinking.
That view may be wishful thinking. The main point of contact between parliament and ANC headquarters at Luthuli House is the political committee, and already that presents a potential clash. The committee is chaired by defence minister Mosiuoa Lekota. His deputy is SA deputy president Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. It is hard to imagine how Zuma, if he becomes party president, will interact with a man with whom he has traded insults and a woman whose rise is the result of his fall.
A senior MP says during the past two years the caucus has become more assertive, and there has been "a renewed willingness to engage". It will be hard to reverse this, whoever wins.
Mentor notes that her own post has changed in the past only by promotion. Baleka Mbete became deputy speaker, Thabang Makwetla Mpumalanga premier and the late Joyce Khoali chair of the national council of provinces.
Episodes cited as examples of the caucus's growing independence include the home affairs committee's rebuke of minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula for failing to appear before it, the clash over perceived interference on the appointment of the SABC board and the rejection by the intelligence committee of the inspector-general's report into the hoax e-mail saga.
The man who led that rejection is Siyabonga Cwele, chair man of the joint standing committee on intelligence and viewed as a rising star in a Zuma presidency. He expects no change in relationships after Polokwane. He points to a set of draft resolutions which argue that the executive and caucus should co-operate rather than try to dominate.
Steven Friedman of the Institute for Democracy in SA says the relationship will depend on factors such as the margin of victory and strategic decisions made by the new president. However, he points to a call by the alliance partners for Luthuli House to have an increasing role in parliament. If that happens, Friedman says, the caucus could become even more compliant. "Allowing Luthuli House a greater say will be a setback for democracy."
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