As we tuck into the turkey, we will have more than a sumptuous meal to chew on. The goings-on at the ANC conference have come as a shock even to the party leadership. If we abide by the view that a party is its membership, we can therefore safely say that the ANC leadership doesn't know its party. It's a strange animal. They, like the rest of us, must have been surprised by the type who turned up at the conference. One can almost hear somebody asking: is this the rabble which runs, or wants to run, the country?
It seemed as though the mob which terrorised Jacob Zuma's rape accused outside the Johannesburg high court had taken over the proceedings. Lest we forget, the woman has been forced into assuming anonymity in exile - far away from family, friends and country. It must have been a shock for Thabo Mbeki to find himself the target of such abuse from his own supporters.
The visceral hatred directed at their leader is something that even Tony Leon on a bad day didn't cop. It has nothing to do with ideology, and nothing to do with the poor, either. The poor are merely a convenient prop. It has everything to do with divvying up the spoils of victory.
The irony is these are people who've done well indeed under Mbeki. But they feel they should have done even better. They see themselves as outsiders who have drawn the short straw. In the absence of a credible and effective opposition, the ANC outside of government seems to be playing opposition to the ANC in government, with Zuma as its titular head. It sees Polokwane, and not the elections in 2009, as the venue where the transfer of power should take place.
A few years ago, Mbeki, seeking to recreate the selfless activist of old who lay down his life in the struggle against apartheid, floated the idea of what he called a "new person" - an individual who would similarly devote himself to new struggles above all else.
It was a pipe dream. Times and circumstances have changed. The stifling air of exile where people could be controlled with ease has given way to an open democratic society where freedom reigns. It's a little detail Mbeki has failed to understand. It's that failure which has seen him walk into the noose in Limpopo. He has cooked his own goose.
Instead of Mbeki's new person, we've seen the emergence of what can only be called the tender generation. No, it's got nothing to do with the softness of their hearts or the smoothness of their skins. It's a voracious breed of individuals who see joining the party as a vehicle to government tenders or cushy government jobs. Both Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe alluded to this phenomenon in their reports to the conference.
The broad church that is the ANC - which, under Mbeki, has increased to include Afrikaner nationalists and the nouveau riche - will come unstuck at some point. The contradictions can't persist forever. The fissures can only become even more pronounced after the conference.
But a split in the ANC, if it does eventually happen, should not be feared. It should be welcomed. It would lead to a more complex, unpredictable but more vigorous political landscape. Ironically it could unite the country across racial and ethnic divides. If, say, two equally balanced forces emerged from a split, both would be compelled to appeal beyond their traditional support base in an effort to knit together a governing majority.
Such a scenario could help wean us from the liberation or exile ethos which is smothering our politics. Otherwise our democracy will be unable to prosper or blossom.
Ranking the Analysts 2009
