19 December 2008 FM's WINNERS & LOSERS POLITICS Interesting times By Carol Paton Politics in 2008 was a gambling man's game: you either won big or lost big; there were no pickings in between

No-one won bigger than Jacob Zuma, who is now heading to the West Wing of the Union Buildings. Having won the ANC presidency at Polokwane in 2007, Zuma cleared his path to the presidency through a combination of popular mobilisation and rabble rousing, a clever legal team and a stroke of good luck. If the ANC wins a majority in the 2009 elections, he will become president, even if he's on trial at the time. While the legal processes are still unfolding, it's even possible that Zuma won't stand trial at all. This is an amazing turnaround from 2½ years ago, when he was fired from the cabinet. Jacob Zuma - Cleverly cleared his path to the presidency Helen Zille - Voted Best Mayor of the World Zuma's amazing good luck came when Judge Chris Nicholson found that there were grounds to insist that the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) should allow Zuma to make representations before he was charged. Nicholson also inferred that former president Thabo Mbeki and his cabinet had indulged in political meddling to ensure the NPA brought a case against Zuma. Nicholson has since been called many things: an activist (by others in the legal profession); a sober judge (by the ANC Youth League); and a judge who went beyond his remit. On January 15, the supreme court of appeal (SCA) will rule on the NPA's appeal against Nicholson with the possibility that sections, if not all, of the judgment will be struck down. This will unleash the next wave of legal processes: a possible appeal against the SCA ruling if it overturns Nicholson; the reinstatement of charges against Zuma by the NPA; and Zuma's application for a permanent stay of prosecution. Judge John Hlophe - For getting off the hook again and again and again Kgalema Motlanthe - He might be just warming the chair for Zuma, but his public profile and stature has grown immensely Whatever plays out, Zuma is fortunate that the Nicholson judg ment has, in all likelihood, postponed his day in court beyond the date of the next election. The judg ment has also strengthened Zuma's case for a permanent stay of prosecution. The Nicholson judg ment also led to Mbeki's demise. Mbeki was 2008's biggest loser. Already a lame duck president since his electoral routing at Polokwane, forcing Mbeki to step down was more about his total humiliation than about the principles of democracy and good governance. And, though Nicholson inferred that Mbeki had meddled, he did not find this as fact. The ironies couldn't have been deeper: Mbeki was removed by Zuma's ANC because a court inferred he had broken the law, much the same way that Mbeki had removed Zuma from government for being implicated in, but not found guilty of, corruption as a result of the Schabir Shaik trial. With the judiciary at the centre of the political stage, there has been an unprecedented clamour over its independence. But it was suggestions made before the Nicholson judg ment that a "political solution" should be found to Zuma's legal woes that pushed SA to the brink. With such undignified behaviour by SA's political leaders, Kgalema Motlanthe - appointed in the interim to keep the presidential seat warm for Zuma - came out looking a winner. Compared with Zuma, it was his measured tone and calm dignity that had many hoping the ANC would change its choice for president. Amid the row over the judiciary, a surprising winner could emerge. Controversial Cape judge president John Hlophe looks like he has wrong-footed the highest court in the land, which he claims has shown bias against him. Facing disciplinary charges for trying to influence two judges in a matter concerning Zuma, Hlophe might again escape censure. The unusual action of the court, which publicised the complaint about Hlophe to the media before allowing him to respond, could inadvertently make him a winner. Mbhazima Shilowa & Mosiuoa Lekota - They're popularly known as Shikota. No matter what people say about them being sore losers, it took real guts to walk out of the ANC and form their own party All these momentous events and more have been propelled by a single dynamic: the implosion of the ANC due to internal power struggles, which has finally led the organisation to cannibalise itself. The formation of the Congress of the People (Cope) in November as the Plan B by the losers at Polokwane was the logical conclusion to the feuding that had ravaged the ANC for much of the past five years. No matter what people say about the Shikotas - Mbhazima Shilowa and Mosiuoa Lekota - being sore losers, it took guts for them to walk out of the ANC and form a new opposition. National director of public prosecutions Vusi Pikoli was another loser in the unravelling of the ANC. Unfortunately, he was nailed by both camps: first by Mbeki for not being politically malleable and then by the Zuma camp, probably for the same reasons. Mbeki suspended Pikoli and Motlanthe fired him. While all attention was focused on the ANC, DA leader Helen Zille got on with her own show: marching against drugs; fundraising; and building the DA's electoral platform. In 2009, and the next election in 2014, Zille is probably correct that the efforts will pay off. While the political dramas of the year took place, the background noise was the misery of the Zimbabwean people - a stolen election, police brutality, starvation, cholera and a collapsing economy. Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, and his supporters are also losers.