"The question of Plan B is dead," says Danny Jordaan from a couch in his plush office at the 2010 Local Organising Committee (LOC) offices near Johannesburg's Soccer City. "It was never real, anyway."
The stadiums for the 2010 soccer World Cup will be built on time and over budget - though not by enough to warrant sleepless nights - and the money to pay for the event's bills is already in the bank, thanks to a US$200m cheque from Fifa, owners of the quadrennial sporting showpiece.
The only question now is whether the fans, especially those from wealthy European countries, will come to SA in the numbers that have been predicted by the experts. These predictions, made before the global economy went into a tailspin, have been used as justification for the nearly R20bn (and climbing) being spent by national and local governments on 2010 projects such as stadiums and support infrastructure.
Danny Jordaan - Still confident
At this early stage, Jordaan is still confident that visitor numbers will justify the investment despite the parlous state of the global economy.
He admits the issue is of great concern, but he draws comfort from the fact that at present games in England, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy remain sold out. "When we see the fans not following their teams anymore we will know that they are feeling the pinch."
He says that though the global economy must be monitored, die hard football fans are like whisky drinkers: "Even when prices go up, a good whisky is always a bargain." That, and the fact that SA's falling exchange rate makes the country a more affordable destination for tourists, should ensure that numbers remain solid, though this will be watched closely by the LOC.
The sentiment is not just wishful thinking from a man who will top SA's most-hated list if "Africa's World Cup" flops.
Fifa itself agrees with what Jordaan says. World football's governing body says there is "growing international interest in match tickets", and that it remains confident the estimated 450 000 foreigners will come to SA for the event.
Fifa spokesman Delia Fischer says: "Naturally nobody can envisage exactly what will happen to the economy, but we are confident it will not have a major impact on the flow of fans."
Protecting Fifa from the economic crisis is a diverse portfolio of agreements with commercial partners who pay dearly for access to the more than 52bn "eyeballs" the games will attract.
Further comfort can be drawn from international accounting firm Grant Thornton, which recently updated its oft-quoted study on the economic impact of 2010 on SA.
The November update agrees that the people will come and that they will spend heavily.
Grant Thornton now estimates that 483 000 foreign tourists will be attracted by the event, of which 151 000 will come from the rest of Africa. They are expected to spend R8,5bn.
Add in what government agencies will spend on infrastructure and what teams, sponsors and the press will lay out over the course of the event, and the value of the direct spend quickly rises to more than R33bn.
Expand these estimates to the broader economy, the Grant Thornton study shows, and the total contribution to the SA economy is more than R55bn.
Included in the spend data are projects that will remain behind after the fans, teams and, in all likelihood, the trophy itself, leave African shores in mid-July. These include nearly 3 000 new hotel rooms, coaches, car-hire fleets and vastly improved airports as well as rail and road transport systems.
Jordaan declines to comment on the potential impact on visitor numbers if the global economic rout lasts until 2010. He says he prefers not to speculate on negative "what-if" scenarios.
He says the stadiums will be built, the teams will have qualified and, thanks to Fifa's $200m and to money from the sponsors, there will be sufficient funds to stage the event.
The tournament will go ahead even if the visitor numbers disappoint, he says.
However, an analysis of the Grant Thornton findings shows a low visitor turnout would be disastrous for SA.
The research shows that the average soccer tourist will spend about a quarter of his or her budget on accommodation and nearly a half on food, transport and entertainment (see table on the left).
Given that foreigners are expected to bring in R8,5bn, this represents more than R6,3bn - a substantial sum that would have gone into the private sector if the fans had arrived.
Jordaan and his team must be hoping that the fiscal stimulus packages and bailouts being unveiled in the world's major economies achieve their desired effect.
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