The Congress of the People used its inaugural conference in the Free State capital of Bloemfontein to make a declaration of intent. But it left unanswered questions about its leadership.
"Cope has arrived," says independent political analyst Zamikhaya Maseti. If the party continues to develop at its current pace, it will be a force to be reckoned with at the next general election, he says. The election is expected to take place some time between March and May 2009.
Maseti cites Cope's claim that it has 428 000 audited members and says the forecast by one of the party's leaders, Mbhazima Shilowa, that it could reach 1m members appears achievable.
The party used the occasion of the launch to confirm its leadership by consensus rather than through election. Maseti notes the divisive nature of elections and agrees with the decision. He says the party must now "choose a face" for the election campaign.
On Monday afternoon, when the FM went to press, that looked set to be former defence minister Mosiuoa Lekota. Maseti says choosing Lekota makes sense, since he was the "brave one" who "served divorce papers" on the ANC.
But it may prove an awkward choice. Shilowa may be a better selection for face of the party. He has been a calming influence since offering to be Lekota's "volunteer in chief". Whereas Lekota is often accused of bitterness towards the new ANC leadership, Shilowa has largely avoided such labels. Lekota has tended to be emotional and to tie himself to the ANC heritage, whereas Shilowa's attacks are seen as being grounded on principle.
Kwandi Kondlo, executive director of the Human Sciences Research Council's democracy and governance programme, says Cope's showing in recent by-elections and its official launch this week reflect a significant shift in the political landscape.
"We are heading towards a consolidation of our democracy where voters will start to align themselves not on identity but rather on policies," says Kondlo. "We see this happening in new democracies around the world after about 15 or 20 years, so SA is not unique in that regard." He says Cope is positioning itself as a modern political party that does not need to invoke history, and it will be largely defined by its policies and by how it engages with the ruling party. "The ANC's response so far has been confused and shows a lack of strategic foresight. It needs to adapt and re-strategise."
The ANC performed dismally in last week's by-elections in the Western Cape, losing 23 of 27 council seats to opposition parties. Cope won 10 wards, with the DA taking nine and the Independent Democrats four.
But political analysts say not a lot should be read into the results and they should not be seen as a measure of how Cope will perform nationally in a general election.
"The ANC is looking weak in the Western Cape, so Cope would have hoped to do better," says Anthony Butler, political science professor at the University of Cape Town. "It certainly has not done better than the DA."
The very low voter turn out, coupled with the fact that the ANC was unable to field candidates in 12 wards after failing to register its candidates on time, makes it almost impossible to gauge the new party's support in the province.
For example, in a ward that includes parts of Woodlands, Mitchell's Plain and Heinz Park and which Cope won, just 1 200 people voted. And in Langa, an ANC stronghold, only 1 100 of 13 700 registered voters cast their ballots.
Sipho Seepe, president of the SA Institute of Race Relations, is critical of both Cope and the ANC. He accuses Cope of suffering an "identity crisis" and says Lekota is "trapped" in former President Thabo Mbeki's shadow. He says the party has failed to make clear pronouncements on the problems created under Mbeki's leadership. These include HIV/Aids, Zimbabwe and President Kgalema Motlanthe's recent decision to fire Vusi Pikoli and his refusal to establish an inquiry into the arms deal.
The only Cope leader who has spoken out on any of these issues - the Zimbabwean situation - has been former Communist Party national treasurer Phillip Dexter, who has called for Robert Mugabe's forced removal.
Seepe says the ANC was wrong to challenge the Cope name in court and should now "unleash" its heavyweights - Trevor Manuel, Pallo Jordan, Zola Skweyiya, Tokyo Sexwale and Lindiwe Sisulu - instead of leaving its response to ANC president Jacob Zuma and secretary-general Gwede Mantashe who, he says, have not been effective in countering the threat from Cope.
Ranking the Analysts 2009
