The world faces 2009 with an unusual degree of uncertainty. Financial markets are in crisis, the global economy is sinking into the worst downturn in decades, the commodities supercycle has collapsed, unemployment is rising and investors are withdrawing capital from emerging economies.
That is what makes recent political events in SA so important. This country cannot evade the global slide towards recession. But it has the added burden of greatly increased uncertainty related to internal governance and policies.
Government and political parties cannot afford to forget that the world is watching. Any adverse developments - related to the democratic process or economic and social policies - could prove costly. Global investors remain nervous and risk averse. Developing countries that attract attention with messy power struggles or unwise economic policies are likely to be punished, with grim social consequences.
Local political events in recent months have not been reassuring. Sadly, 2008 will be remembered for the first real test faced by post-apartheid SA - and we failed. Things have gone wrong politically, economically and socially. The myths that sustained the illusion that we were something special because we had beaten apartheid were shattered.
There is a real risk that much of what was won over the past 15 years could be lost. If that is to be avoided, our politicians will need to do a considerably better job in 2009 than they did in 2008.
The hand over of power within the ruling ANC party should have been a political highlight of the post-1994 period. Instead it has turned into a nightmare, characterised by deception, intrigue and back-stabbing.
Jacob Zuma, whose loyal fans ushered him into the green room for the country's top job - corruption accusations and gross lapses of judgment notwithstanding - is so far showing no sign of proving his many detractors wrong. He has done little to show that he is capable of leading the nation out of the morass his election led it into.
The change in ANC leadership should have opened the space for greater public political discourse, but it didn't. Emboldened by their success in Polokwane, the new ANC elite brand those who do not agree with the party line counter revolutionaries or traitors. It appears they want blind obedience. As a result, we could be saddled with a president who has shown no backbone and who has proven himself susceptible to manipulation.
The formation of a new party, a breakaway from the ruling party, provides the first real threat to the hegemony of the ANC; and any pretence of political tolerance has vanished with its emergence.
Even before it was officially launched at a conference in Bloemfontein this week the Congress of the People (Cope) had already won a number of wards in the Western Cape. That may not be a good barometer of national sentiment but the party does seem to be gathering support.
It is essential that in coming months Cope and other political parties are allowed to contest voter support in a fair and open way.
At the same time, government must ensure that economic policy, both monetary and fiscal, does not become a sacrificial lamb in the battle for supremacy within the ruling party elite. The tragedy is that the politicians and union bosses will probably still have jobs next year even if many working people don't.
After the years of economic expansion, unemployment is rising again. The manufacturing sector has been losing competitiveness - partly because of loss of skills and high inflation - and faces weakening export markets. The collapse in commodity prices is forcing the mining sector to cut back or defer capital projects, with significant job losses. Conditions for wholesalers and retailers have fallen to a multiyear low.
The deterioration in the global and domestic outlook means the local growth rates needed to halve unemployment - at least 6% a year by 2010 - will not be achieved.
It would be unfair to place all the blame for slowing growth at the feet of politicians. There is little they could have done to predict or mitigate the effects of the collapse of the world's biggest and most prestigious financial institutions, the drying up of global liquidity, the chaos in the US property market and the crashing of commodity prices. But leadership and economic management during the downturn will greatly influence the severity and duration of its impact on SA society, and on the health of its economy when the recovery comes.
The signals from politicians should be clear and consistent. Depending on who is holding the microphone, we are told either that policies will remain in place or that they will be changed radically to reflect the new order. These mixed messages are not helpful.
Policy makers should resist any temptation to respond to the slowdown by throwing money at economic problems. SA's prudence during the expansion enables government to manage the downturn from a position of relative strength. But we remain a small, developing country and cannot afford to follow the examples set by the US and Europe.
What remains to be seen is whether this country's next phalanx of elected leadership has the will and the skill to fix what the last lot broke - and to avoid meddling where they shouldn't. Stable and steady leadership is an important condition for a recovery in confidence and in the economy. If they are not up to the task, the new leaders must go as well.
We have democracy and we must use it wisely. If we don't, we will have no-one to blame but ourselves.
Ranking the Analysts 2009
