Plug-in power is coming. The Prius hybrid is Japan's best-selling car. US president Barack Obama wants Americans to buy at least 1m electric and hybrid vehicles annually. European nations are setting similar targets. Cities around the world are changing infrastructure to accommodate the new automotive technology. Even US investor Warren Buffett is betting millions on an obscure Chinese electric-car company.
Electric vehicles are about to transform the way people travel. But they aren't new. They first appeared in Europe in the 1830s and remained the technology of choice until the early 1900s when petrol started to become widely available.
Interest in electric vehicles reappeared in the 1970s when the Middle East oil crisis drove fuel prices sky-high. By the 1990s, nearly 30 manufacturers offered electric cars. But rudimentary battery technology continued to limit power and range, and there was a general lack of development urgency.
All that has changed in the first decade of the 21st century. Global warming, pollution and other environmental issues have forced the hand of governments and the motor industry. So has the reluctant realisation that underground oil stocks are depleting. There is also a need, in Western eyes, to reduce dependence on oil-producing countries able to use their economic power for political purposes.
International climate-change conferences like those at Copenhagen late last year may fail to find binding accords but there is general agreement on the need to clean the atmosphere and eliminate greenhouse-gas emissions.
Carlos Ghosn - "As an automaker, we cannot control the power source. Our job is to try to neutralise CO² emissions"
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), awarded the Nobel peace prize in 2007, recommended a 50%-85% reduction in CO² emissions from 2001 levels by 2050 to limit global warming to 2°C.It won't be easy. The world's population is forecast to grow from 6,7bn in 2008 to 9,5bn in 2050. Demand for transport will grow with it.
However, in 2007, the world's urban population overtook the rural population for the first time. So there will be a greater potential market among people with short-distance driving needs. In Europe, it is estimated that 80% of drivers travel less than 80 km daily.
That's about the range most current lithium-ion batteries can comfortably manage between charges - though there are exceptions. This limited range remains the biggest obstacle to wholesale consumer take-up of electric vehicles. Scientists are working furiously to increase range and affordability and there is no doubt that eventually battery power will run into hundreds, possibly thousands of kilometres. Until then, says Nancy Gioia, Ford's director of sustainable mobility technologies, "not everyone considers this true mobility".
The example of Japan, where short commutes have helped make the Prius the country's most popular car, shows motorists are not averse to new technologies. But Prius is a hybrid, meaning it is run on a combination of electric and petrol power. This best-of-both-worlds system overcomes most of the pure-electric limitations on power and distance. There are two kinds of hybrid vehicle: one able to recharge itself, and a plug-in version.
Toyota, which makes Prius, has stated that hybrid, in both its forms, will soon replace the traditional internal combustion engine as its core technology. Others won't be far behind. But recent quality problems, in which hundreds of thousands of Prius units have been recalled around the world because of a faulty computerised braking system, may persuade the Japanese carmaker to slow the development pace a little. Some analysts argue that the rush by companies to lead the way in new technologies is encouraging them to cut development corners.
Under cover of Toyota's recent product problems, several other companies recalled hybrids to sort out design glitches. Among them was the Ford Fusion hybrid - days after the vehicle had been named North American car of the year.
A sign of the changing times is Ford's next-generation Focus - a brand familiar to South Africans and consumers all over the world. The US motor company plans to build up to 2m annually in a variety of petrol, diesel, electric and both hybrid forms. Similarly, Toyota's plans include hybrid versions of established models like the Yaris.
In their early days, hybrid vehicles were designed to look different: "boring" would be a better word. Now they are following mainstream design. Lexus has shown that hybrid can be big and conventional, while Mercedes-Benz, with its imminent S-Class hybrid, will also help change the technology's image. At last month's annual Detroit motor show, Volkswagen unveiled a hybrid compact coupé with a 1,4 litre engine and 27 hp electric motor capable of 232 km/h. Tesla, a US producer of all-electric sports cars, has been similarly changing perceptions of electric vehicles.
So what does all this mean for the cars we drive today? Gioia says that though the internal combustion engine will still be around decades from now, it will have been revolutionised by emission and fuel-efficiency improvements. She estimates that by 2020 electric and hybrid vehicles could account for 20% of total sales in some markets.
Some analysts say the rate of penetration will accelerate after that. Gioia says: "We ask ourselves if the conventional engine will be gone by 2050 and the answer is no. Some markets, for reasons of cost or infrastructure or whatever else, will still prefer what we have now. Reality says there can't be a single-bullet strategy for the whole world."
That's why the industry continues to pursue other power sources (see story "Back to the future"). Research into hydrogen-powered cars is particularly advanced. Methane, nuclear, solar and even wind power are all under consideration.
However, proponents of electric power say this is the logical choice. Some say even hybrid power, with its part reliance on conventional fuels, will eventually give way to zero-emission motoring.
Of course, there are different definitions of zero-emission. A discussion paper by the Nissan-Renault alliance, one of the leaders in electric vehicles, says: "Some people note that if the electricity used to power electric vehicles is produced in current coal- or natural gas-fired power plants, the electric car could not be considered a true zero-emission vehicle.
"The entire process of moving a car one mile is more efficient using electricity than producing gasoline and burning it in a car's engine."
The paper refers to a US department of energy report, which notes that in the long run the steady demand for electricity is likely to result in investments in cleaner power plants, even if coal remains the dominant fuel for electricity production. "The increased demand for electricity to charge electric vehicles could be accommodated by charging vehicles overnight, during off-peak hours, using the power plants' existing idle capacity."
Nissan-Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn says: "As an automaker, we cannot control the power source. Our job is to try to neutralise CO² emissions."
Though the long-term direction may be hybrid/electric, many companies continue to seek improvements in petrol and diesel technologies. The use of direct fuel injection, turbo-boost and other means allows engines to offer improved performance while becoming progressively smaller and cleaner. Stop-start technology, which switches off the engine when a vehicle is idling, is becoming commonplace.
Thomas Weber, head of research and development for Mercedes-Benz cars, says his company is already producing two electric cars in small numbers, "but we are also working just as intensively on expanding our BlueEfficiency model range... delivering up to 23% better fuel efficiency".
Chevrolet, one of the first to announce its plans, is preparing to roll out the Volt hy brid next year. BMW's ActiveE programme has developed electric versions of Mini and the 1-Series. Audi recently showed off a new version of its E-Tron, able to accelerate from 0 km/h-100 km/h in under six seconds.
Though motor companies are presenting technology investment as voluntary environmental responsibility, they are encouraged by regular governmental kicks up the backside. In the US, an ever-tightening noose demands improved emissions standards and fuel efficiency.
Across the Atlantic, the European Commission plans to impose financial penalties on vehicle fleets exceeding carbon dioxide emission limits (limits, by the way, that are less harsh than those which will be imposed in SA later this year). A number of cities around the world exempt electric and hybrid vehicles from emission taxes.
WHAT IT MEANS
 Battery technology is still a limitation
Governments offering buyer incentives
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Israel, which has signed an electric vehicle supply agreement with Renault-Nissan, has agreed to cut the standard 80% purchase tax on new vehicles to 10% for electric vehicles. The Israeli government will introduce a network of 500 000 battery charging stations by the end of next year.
In Denmark, which wants 10% of its parking spaces to have electric chargers, electric vehicles will be exempt from registration taxes of up to 180%.
Even China, usually resistant to anti pollution overtures, is joining in. BYD, until recently an anonymous producer of batteries, cellphones and electric cars, could surprise everyone. Buffett thinks so: his Berkshire Hathaway investment company spent US$230m on a 10% stake, having tried for 25%. BYD is already producing cars cheaper and with greater range than those promised by US, European and Japanese companies. Buffett believes BYD's programme could one day make it the world's largest automaker.
Ranking the Analysts 2009
