New car sales rose an encouraging 16,2% y/y in February, from 12% in January. This is the second consecutive month of a y/y increase, after nearly three years of declining sales. It signals that the sector, which is an important employer, is recovering from its slump - though off a low base.
Growth in passenger car sales was supported by better economic conditions and rising demand from rental and other transport companies in preparation for the soccer World Cup. Commercial vehicles grew modestly, however, as the medium & heavy commercial vehicle market is still under pressure. The outlook for domestic sales has risen, and these could gain momentum as economic activity improves. The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers says the sector is on track for a sustainable recovery. However, high vehicle prices still weigh heavily on consumer demand. The strength of the rand may limit price increases of imported vehicles.
The rise in global demand for vehicles has reduced the pace of contraction in export sales. Exports declined by 5,1% y/y, from a decline of 14,9% previously, and are expected to grow by 32% this year, after a 38,5% contraction in 2009.
Razina Munshi
-60,4 points. January's purchasing managers' index, a gauge of manufacturing activity, surged well above expectations, from 53,6 previously. It signals that a rebound in the beleaguered sector may be on par with SA's trading partners.
-3,3 billion rand,SA's trade account recorded a deficit in January after a large surplus in December. In line with market expectations and seasonal factors, exports fell sharply while imports rose.
-6,2 percent y/y. Consumer inflation dropped marginally, from 6,3% in December. Insurance, financial and funeral services as well as higher food inflation put upward pressure on January's data. Power price rises will add about 0,45% to inflation.
Over the past month the price of gold has fluctuated considerably, plunging to a four-month low only to reverse those losses at the end of last week. Bullion has taken direction from the positive sentiment towards commodities as an alternative asset, while continuing concerns about Greece's fiscal deficit have boosted the metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset. In dollar terms, the price of gold jumped nearly 4% last month and it has received support from the US$1 100/oz level. However, when denominated in euro terms, the price of gold jumped 6% as the currency tumbled on concerns about recovery prospects in Europe.
Last month, the price of Brent crude increased 8%, marking the biggest monthly gain since October. The oil price increased partly because of positive sentiment over the global recovery. Moreover, a report released by the US department of commerce last Friday showed that the US economy expanded 5,9% in the fourth quarter of 2009, signalling that fuel demand may increase in the world's largest energy-consuming nation. However, the renewed strength of the dollar continued to cap any significant rally in the oil price.
Commodities - Copper jump |
Copper prices surged to a five-month high at the start of this week after an 8,8 magnitude earthquake hit Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal. The earthquake disrupted production at mines run by Codelco (the world's largest copper producer) while Anglo American closed a number of operations in central Chile. Prices pulled back after mines reopened on Tuesday.
Ranking the Analysts 2009
