After his spectacular success as SA's first ANC finance minister, Trevor Manuel faces perhaps the biggest personal challenge of his career. What can he do for an encore? Though another few years at national treasury seem assured, at least until 2009, independent analyst Gavin Lewis is one of those predicting that Manuel will quit his post "sooner rather than later" and head for the World Bank. In a world that has suddenly awoken to the implications of developmental failure, Manuel has much to contribute.
In another country he could aspire to the top job. But in SA he is thought to be barred from the presidency because he is too pale. "I serve at the pleasure of the president," is all Manuel himself says in response to the inevitable question about his future. For many, particularly in business, he would be the ideal candidate to succeed President Thabo Mbeki in 2009, particularly in the absence of any clear favourites.
FNB economist Cees Bruggemans recently suggested: "If a popular, neutral figure were to present his credentials, the many jealousies might be pushed aside. We have such a person on tap. The minister of finance leads the ANC popularity stakes by a wide margin. Not aligned with any specific faction, popular with the masses, competent for many years , yet considering the highest office beyond reach because of old prejudices.
"A Manuel presidency would probably display the common sense observed in the Mandela presidency ."
But the political reality is that an African will have to occupy the top seat in this country. So the only way up for Manuel will be outside government. The business world, of course, would be his oyster, for the asking - corporate SA would welcome him with open arms and a huge remuneration package.
But when rumours of his departure do the rounds at regular intervals, he is generally cast for a role at the World Bank . He would be well prepared for this job.
"Manuel was one of a group of technocrats Mbeki was gathering around him in the mid-1990s who, between them, managed to inject some realism into policy formulation, and rein in the spending at all levels of government," says Lewis. "As finance minister, Manuel tightened the knot so quickly and effectively that he spurred much-needed action in the provinces."
Many provinces have started to show improved controls over spending and better budgeting under Manuel's tutelage. But on the whole, the poor state of provincial and local finances remains a headache for Manuel as he drafts his "To do" list for the next few years. Another challenge Manuel faced was the perception that government in general and the finance minister in particular could raise the level of employment. And Gear reinforced the perception, with a totally unrealistic projection for job creation. As it is, there is little sign that the economy can generate jobs needed to meaningfully reduce the 26% unemployment rate .
Even in the most favourable environment, job creation is beyond the scope of the finance minister, who can do no more than Manuel has done: create a sound environment in which businesses feel they can invest .
Manuel's legacy to SA is a stable and growing economy and a place in the global sun.
