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13 February 2009

BUDGET AND POLITICS

Right on the money



By Carol Paton

Trevor Manuel has been skilful in bringing along the new ANC leadership, while being scathing of the party's more extreme and unrealistic demands

The 2009/2010 budget was never going to be dull: an election lies just around the corner; a new administration hungry for resources to do things its way is waiting at the door; and, around the world governments, panicked over the global financial crisis, are throwing money at companies.

But instead of falling victim to trends in international fashion or bowing to domestic populist pressure, finance minister Trevor Manuel has walked his own path. Significantly, he has carried his party along with him.

"I could easily, with an election looming, have stood up in parliament today and announced a 20% deficit and spun all kinds of stories... but none of that presents itself as the honest solution in a democracy that looks not just at the present but at the future," Manuel told journalists.

It was, say both Manuel and his director-general, Lesetja Kganyago, their toughest budget yet.

In broad strokes, what they have crafted despite the unfavourable conditions is a surprisingly expansionary budget. There are good real increases in spending in critical areas but, significantly, the rate of increase in spending is smaller than before and some demands, contained in the ANC manifesto, have not been included at all.

What was included is more important than what wasn't.

The state's infrastructure expansion programme - begun in 2005 and now pumped up to R787bn - is strongly supported by the ANC and its allies, and viewed, as Manuel said, as the best way to "create employment and that makes for durable change". Its sheer size makes up for other political priorities that might have been left out.

Both the education and health budgets grow strongly. It is here where the administration-in-waiting most desperately wants to make real and rapid progress. But growth is slower than before: education spending grows by 10%/ year (as opposed to 14% last year) while health grows by 9,2% in this three-year budget cycle, against 17% for the previous three-year period.

Spending on public works also grows by an additional R4,1bn. Significantly, the design of the new phase of public works is less populist than its previous incarnation, and allows for longer work opportunities.

The size of the budget deficit before borrowing has for many years been regarded as an informal political indicator: small deficits mean that the fiscal conservatives are winning debates within the ANC, while large ones mean the Left is in the ascendancy. This time that's not true.

Though a suddenly much larger deficit - 3,8% of GDP - has appeared, it's not an indication of profligacy. Part of the new deficit is accounted for by lower revenue rather than increased spending (1,2%), and part (another 1,2%) by the R60bn granted to Eskom last year. And, after Manuel's speech in parliament, the words on every politician's lips were "global financial crisis".

ANC president Jacob Zuma, for instance, said the budget reflected the manifesto "very well" and noted a job well done in the context of the crisis.

But it is not the future that the new ANC leadership imagined for themselves when they wrested control of the ANC away from Thabo Mbeki and his fiscal conservatives. Control over government spending was supposed to follow.

"It's not an environment that is of our choosing," said Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi after the speech. Like Zuma, he acknowledged global conditions, and though expressing disappointment that the child support grant had not been extended to the age of 18 - an undertaking made in the ANC manifesto - he expressed his understanding.

Manuel says the expansion of the grant - which the manifesto links to the conditionality of attendance at school - "is something we will work through". (The grant was phased in this year for children up to the age of 15, an undertaking made last year.)

The same goes for the national health insurance (NHI) scheme, says Manuel. It's another ambitious and potentially expensive commitment in the manifesto. Though the budget makes no promises on the NHI and, at most, promises to "investigate" it, Manuel says this is not because it is opposed.

The trickier question, though, and the one closest to the hearts of Cosatu, the ANC's most powerful ally, will be the undertaking to protect employment given in the manifesto.

Views on how jobs will be saved will be quite divergent. Though the manifesto mentions specifically that industry-sector plans should be developed - the clothing industry is one that is singled out - Manuel's view is that saving jobs should be less about government money and more about finding ways of working things out. There is the example of the Mining Royalties Bill, which Manuel has now deferred for a year in the hope that mining jobs will be saved.

WHAT IT MEANS
Manuel remains the voice of reason
He carries party along with him

"It would be wonderful to retain all jobs... let's try to find a different way of dealing with it... that will be more difficult than making a hollow commitment to saving jobs," he says.

In this budget, Manuel has again been the voice of prudence and reason. And while he has skilfully taken a new and anxious ANC leadership along with him, he's also frankly dismissive of the party's worst dogma.

Asked how he thought the budget would contribute to the manifesto's promise to provide "decent work" - which means jobs with benefits and job security - he was scathing of such idealism in times of hardship. "All jobs are hard to come by, and the more adjectives you add, the harder they will be."

After lots of political diplomacy, it was a fitting bit of Manuel honesty.





Zwelinzima Vavi


Jacob Zuma


Thabo Mbeki


Trevor Manuel



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