The last quarter of 2008 marked the end of an era in global finance. Economic liberty has now been called to account and capitalism, that socio political and economic system that embodies it, is entering a new age.
In the US and Britain financial firms have accepted partial nationalisation with its strict regulatory consequences. The financial crisis that sparked these radical measures thus marks the end of the ideological hegemony of the Reagan-Thatcher era and the beginning of a new paradigm of "tight money, tough regulation, less speculation and more government meddling in markets", to quote a recent Newsweek article.
Though exchange controls and credit legislation will protect SA from this volatile global economic tide, the murky world of politics is by no means immune from the global "spirit of change" of the last quarter of 2008.
The forced resignation of former President Thabo Mbeki on September 21 signalled the dramatic end to SA's democratic transition and the kick start of the consolidation phase - its most important fall out being Mosiuoa Lekota's October 8 announcement of an effective secession from the ANC. But it also signified a new beginning in modern party politics in SA, and has raised the possibility of an effective fragmentation of the monolithic political organisation.
This will undoubtedly have serious consequences for the ANC in the 2009 general election.
The central question that flows from this event, and the internal rebellion it has generated in the ANC, is what impact it will have on the sustainability of the ANC's dominance over the SA political system; for this will largely determine the future of our polity.
There are two competing arguments to consider. The first is illustrated in the ANC's response to the rebellion's intentions through Jeff Radebe's initial correspondence with Lekota: "Remember that the ANC, as an institution, will stay forever, while individuals like you will go. History is full of examples of such individuals." The message is clear: break away, fine; but history is not on your side. In one sense, the ANC has a point.
Pixley ka Seme
The ANC's founding president, John Dube, led the bulk of ANC branches in the then Natal out of the mother body to set up the Natal Native Congress, a regional organisation in opposition to the ANC. In 1930, a conservative faction under Pixley ka Seme led a campaign to expel communists, which in turn led to a breakaway faction under Josiah Gumede to form the Independent ANC. In 1959, an Africanist faction led by Robert Sobukwe rejected the Freedom Charter and formed the Pan Africanist Congress.
In 1975, the Gang of Eight, led by Tennyson Makiwane, were expelled for questioning the role of SA Communist Party members in senior ANC structures. And in 1996, Bantu Holomisa was likewise expelled for accusing Stella Sigcau of corruption in the politics of the former Transkei.
According to this argument, we should view both political choices and those who make them in the context of history - thus the rebellion will simply register as a non issue.
That the ANC is the dominant party in the SA political system further adds weight to the idea that embodied in the ANC is a model of how democracy and stability may be combined to manage the path to consolidation well. Any split, therefore, is perceived as an illegitimate attempt to break the stabilising social contract, and is thus doomed to fail. In this context, the ANC's dominance will continue.
The second argument is illustrated by Epainette Mbeki, mother of Thabo Mbeki, in her response to the outcome of the Polokwane congress. Declaring Luthuli House "redundant" and what it stands for "a spoke in the wheel of progress", her argument unintentionally takes its cue from comparative political theory and historical research. In this light, the internal divisions that exploded in the ANC are a consequence of its dominance in the SA party system.
Political theorist Maurice Duverger writes that, though one-party domination may take the zest out of political life, simultaneously bringing stability and certainty in politics, every domination bears within itself the seeds of its own destruction: "The dominant party wears itself out in office, it loses its vigour, and its arteries harden."
Thus, being assured of re-election, the ANC no longer sees the need to respond to public opinion and has turned on itself. That the party's succession wars at all levels of the organisation coincided with the most sustained service delivery protest action since the end of apartheid confirms the view that the ANC's dominance has reached a process of petrifaction, and the rebellion is its most immediate consequence.
Robert Sobukwe
In this context, the rebellion has not built its anatomy on the past; rather, it is an attempt to build an alternative organisation and in so doing will stimulate debate within society over ideas and policies and provide an important check on government power.
The real story, however, lies between these two views. That the events of 2008 shook the foundations of the ANC is no longer in question. The issue is whether the ANC's grip on SA politics is under threat. For the short term, it is unlikely; building a strong, viable alternative to a monolithic organisation like the ANC requires a considerable amount of popular sources of legitimacy and trust, which takes time to build.
However, it is important that we consider Duverger's premonition on the dominant party: there comes a time when institutions stop growing and simply try to perpetuate the past. It is in such times of paralysis that internal rebellion marks the end of an era and a new beginning.
- Jolobe lectures comparative politics at the University of Cape Town ends here.
