Pogo, an American cartoon possum, once ran for office behind a placard declaring: "I promise you nothing - avoid disappointment." Neither Mbhazima Shilowa nor many enthusiasts of the most substantial breakaway from the ANC since 1994 seem to have much time for the Pogo approach to managing political expectations.
Mbhazima Shilowa
Shilowa has claimed that the Congress of the People (Cope), as the party is called at present, will win the 2009 election. Others have not been that prone to fantasy, but have asserted that we can now look forward to a new era of vigorous party contest in which the opposition, led by Cope, can win at least a fifth of the vote and can deprive the ANC of control of four provinces.
So, will 2009 be the year in which the ANC's dominance of elections ends? Almost certainly not. But it may be a vital year for politics despite this.
Cope's electoral prospects are probably being vastly exaggerated, for three reasons.
- First, political loyalties run deep in this society and, no matter how disillusioned ANC voters may be - and many are very disenchanted - people do not switch party allegiances easily. An alternative to the ANC would thus be most likely to give it a real scare if it managed to project itself to voters as the real ANC, truer to its traditions than those who lead it now.
It is hard to see Cope doing this, since its leaders seem unable to decide whether they want to claim the ANC mantle or make a pitch for voters who have not traditionally backed the governing party. Given the depth of political loyalties here, it is hard to imagine that there are too many of these unaffiliated voters - and, by reaching out beyond the ANC camp (by inviting opposition parties to its convention, for example), Cope inevitably dilutes its appeal to ANC voters and risks being seen as just another opposition party.
- Second, it seems unlikely that Cope has attracted the national leadership figures or the organised constituencies within the ANC camp that it needs to give the ANC a fright. Whereas Shilowa and Mosiuoa Lekota are well known, they lack the national standing and following to project themselves as leaders of an alternative government. The key organised constituencies within the ANC camp, such as labour federation Cosatu and black professional and business associations, have stuck with the ANC or remained neutral, reducing Cope's ability to mobilise voters. Though reports claim that entire ANC branches or provincial structures will defect to Cope, giving it the organisational muscle it needs, these structures seem divided.
- Third, and perhaps most obviously, six months is not much time to organise a challenge to the ruling party.
For all these reasons, it seems likeliest to imagine Cope polling in single digits, making significant but not fatal dents in the ANC vote in the Eastern and Western Cape and perhaps Limpopo. And so 2009 is unlikely to be the year in which the ANC is faced for the first time by an opposition party that could plausibly replace it in government.
None of which means that Cope's emergence is irrelevant - or that 2009 will feature politics as usual.
The fact that the ANC faces a challenge from within is itself important. As long as it faces opposition that cannot lay claim to the history and ethos of the ANC, it is immune from electoral defeat and can afford to take its voters for granted. But as soon as it faces an opponent that can lay such a claim, it must work far harder and take voters more seriously. So Cope's emergence makes the 2009 poll the first in which the ANC faces the prospect of losing votes and seats. This means an election - and politics - in which politicians will feel a greater need to account to and listen to voters than ever before. This is a major shift in our politics, which should create incentives for more accountable and responsive government.
Whether this pressure will continue if Cope's share of the vote does remain in the single digits is uncertain. What is certain is that prospects for accountability rest on the ANC realising that it cannot take voters for granted - and that, if the threat to it is exaggerated before the election, even a significant setback will seem like a victory, ensuring a return to the old ways of assuming, rather than earning, support.
Cope's formation seems to have invigorated our politics, enhancing citizens' interest in the political process by bringing a sense of change and unpredictability that has not been evident in previous elections. The emergence of a party from within the ANC's ranks also poses a threat to democracy - it could prompt uglier political conflict, even if Cope wins less than one in 10 votes.
Party competition since 1994 has largely been an illusion: parties have monopolised blocs of voters and their rivals have not bothered to challenge these monopolies. Because there is not much competition for votes, the risk of conflict is much reduced. But, when competition does emerge, the stakes are raised and politics is more likely to turn ugly. That is why there was inter party violence in KwaZulu Natal this year - for the first time in years, the ANC and the IFP are competing for votes. And it is also why contests for votes in the traditional ANC base raise the risk of conflict. The 2009 campaign will, therefore, provide the most important test thus far of our new democracy's ability to absorb vigorous competition between parties. ANC and Cope leadership have urged their supporters to recognise their opponents' right to campaign. This is an important step, but may not be effective in curbing local political bosses who are not used to competition on their turf. If the ANC and Cope do compete without serious conflict, this will be a major step forward for democracy.
However it fares in the polls, Cope's formation will help make 2009 our most interesting political year since 1994. The electoral challenge that will force the ANC to worry about its hold on office is probably yet to be born. But even a limited challenge holds threats and opportunities for democracy that were absent in previous election years.
- Prof Friedman is director of the Centre for the Study of Democracy, Rhodes University and the University of Johannesburg
