SA's workforce is being wiped out by HIV/Aids at an alarming rate. Of the estimated 5,5m people living with HIV in SA, most are aged between 15 and 50 and contribute to the economy. The Bureau of Market Research (BMR) at Unisa projects that HIV/Aids will have a significant effect on household incomes and expenditure, as well as on national income in SA over the next seven years.
It is projected that by 2015 HIV/Aids will hit SA's gross domestic product (GDP) between 1,3% (low variant) and 6% (high variant), with a medium variant of about 3,7%. There will be a steady percentage decline in household expenditure due to HIV/Aids until 2012. Spend on agricultural products will decline the most because the lower income groups that are the predominant consumers will be the most devastated by HIV/Aids.
A similar trend also holds for clothing, handbags and footwear. As households feel the pinch of lower incomes and rising medical expenses, it is expected they will spend less on durable and semidurable items to afford food, medicines and rent.
Prof Carel van Aardt of the BMR predicts that the full might of HIV/Aids will be felt the most on total consumption expenditure on household appliances, lighting equipment and accumulators (such as batteries). Though there are no official statistics of how much Aids has robbed the economy, the mining sector reckons their profit margins have taken a beating. The Benchmark Foundation estimates that about 16%-30% of mineworkers are infected with HIV, and figures would be higher if all workers were tested.
By 2015 - Household incomes will be spent more on food and medicines
The sector contributes more than 6% to GDP, and gold and platinum producers are considered the largest employers with about 500 000 workers. Mining houses such as Anglo American and Gold Fields are investing millions of rand a year on HIV/Aids awareness programmes and the rollout of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for their workers.
In 2002, Anglo took the lead by providing free ART in one of the biggest private-sector HIV/Aids programmes in Southern Africa. Most mining houses have since followed suit and introduced voluntary counselling and testing (VCT).
Tim Quinlan of the University of KwaZulu Natal says most mining houses have VCT programmes, but there is a poor uptake rate of ART and active follow-ups. It's a problem the mining houses are grappling with. At De Beers, for example, not every infected worker enlists for treatment as most say they are afraid of being subjected to discrimination.
HIV/Aids is already taking its toll on teacher numbers. Two hundred of 500 National Teachers Union members who volunteered for Aids tests between last October and this September have tested HIV-positive. And the National Professional Teachers Organisation of SA suspects that most of its 250 members who died in Gauteng this year died of Aids-related illnesses.
